Future Considerations

I've moved!

2008-01-18T22:47:00.000-05:00

As of today, I have moved to cover prospects and the minor leagues at DRaysBay, which can be found here. Probably everyone who reads this blog visits DRaysBay anyway, so I hope to see you there!

The New Guy: Chase Fontaine

2008-01-17T21:14:00.001-05:00

As you are probably aware of the trade that sent reliever Jeff Ridgway to Atlanta for infielders Willy Aybar and Chase Fontaine. You can view discussion of the deal at DRaysBay here, where most of the discussion is correctly about Ridgway and Aybar. But here, we're going to take a look at the throw-in from Atlanta, Chase Fontaine.

A Braves 2nd rounder(72nd overall) in 2006 out of Daytona Beach CC, Fontaine split 2007 between Rome(SAL League) and Myrtle Beach(Carolina League). Older than most of the SAL competition, he hit a respectable .288/.402/.399 in 318 at-bats with Rome, but hit a wall in Myrtle Beach. The Pelicans' home stadium is notoriously rough on hitters, but .205/.284/.256 in 78 at-bats is bad in any stadium.

Fontaine has a solid all-around game but lacks any plus tools. Clearly he has relied on plate discipline as a pro, not hitting for much power in his 1.5 seasons. He played shortstop at Daytona Beach, but has played all over the place as a pro: SS, 2B, 3B, and OF. His versatility and compact swing make him a candidate to move up steadily through the minors, but I don't ever see him becoming a big-league regular. With work(namely, cutting down on a high strikeout number for something with his swing), he could become a decent backup thanks to his ability to play almost anywhere. He doesn't have the range to be an everyday SS or the power to be an everyday 3B, so 2B is probably his long-term main position.

Fontaine could be a fringe top-30 prospect in some organizations, but he's probably in the 38-40 range with the Rays. He'll start 2007 at Vero Beach, a welcome change of scenery from Myrtle Beach.

From John Sickels:

Drafted in the second round out of Daytona Beach CC in 2006, Chase Fontaine (sounds like a name from a 1950s musical) is a line drive hitter with very good strike zone judgment. He doesn't have much power at this point, although some scouts believe he will develop more as he progresses. He hit well in the Sally League (OPS +9 percent), but was much less effective after a late promotion to the Carolina League. Note the deterioration in his BB/K/AB ratio at the higher level. I was pretty optimistic about Fontaine last year and gave him a B-, but that looks too high right now. He needs to show more pop, but still has a chance to be an Adam Kennedy type. Grade C+.

Top 30 Prospects: #19 Heath Rollins

2008-01-15T17:43:00.000-05:00

#19 Heath Rollins, RHP, 22 years old, spent 2007 at low-A Columbus
#20 Mike McCormick, C
#21-30

In his first taste of pro ball, Rollins had arguably the best season of any pitcher in the Rays system: 17-4, 2.54 ERA, 149/38 SO/BB ratio in 159 innings, 1.07 WHIP as the ace of the Catfish team that went on to win the SAL title.

So why is he only 18th? He was 22 years old most of the season, so his dominating the younger competition isn't as impressive as, say, 20-year-old Jeremy Hellickson putting up similar numbers. But just because he was old for his league doesn't make Rollins a non-prospect.

There's a lot to like with Rollins. Have played at Winthrop with Twins' pitcher Kevin Slowey, the two have been compared due to their similar styles. But while Rollins has good control, he lacks the plus-plus command of his former teammate.

Rollins is actually one of the best athletes in the Rays' organization, and he would've been drafted as an outfielder if not for his pitching prowess. In two years as a part-time outfielder at Winthrop, he hit .333 and stole 54 bases. His limited power ceiling led Tampa Bay to keep him on the mound, where I think his athleticism is a huge plus. Call me a sucker for them, but athletic pitchers can often pitch above their fringe-average tools, such as Kyle Kendrick with Philadelphia this year.

Still, he'll be 23 and pretty much a finished product next season, so his ceiling is lower than a lot of other guys' on this list. He tops out around 90-91 with his fastball and doesn't have a plus offspeed offering. But his good command and pitchability should have him moving quickly. He'll start 2008 at Vero Beach but should finish in Montgomery and perhaps be poised to plug a hole on the big-league staff sometime during 2009.

The coming week

2008-01-12T21:08:00.001-05:00

Top 30 updates will be posted sporadically, mostly due to a spotty internet connection and a full work schedule. In the meantime, go Cowboys!

Chat Triple Threat: Callis, Goldstein, Ballew

2008-01-09T15:10:00.001-05:00

Reminder: You can see my BA Top 10 breakdown here

A banner day for bored prospect bloggers everywhere, as prospect gurus Jim Callis of BaseballAmerica and Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspectus held chats, as well as Bill Ballew of BA holding the Rays-centric chat. Here are the Rays-related questions from Callis and Goldstein, as well as some select ones from Ballew. My comments are in parenthesis.

Kevin (FC): What's Ryan Royster's ceiling, a Jonny Gomes-type?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:38 PM ET ) That seems fair to me.
(Obviously Royster doesn't have the eye, but makes more consistent contact with similar power.)

Kevin (FC): Kazmir or Bedard in 2008?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:41 PM ET ) Kazmir.

Kevin (FC): An early college baseball question: Which teams are pre-season favorites?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:26 PM ET ) I know Aaron Fitt and John Manuel are still working on our preseason Top 25. The last I heard, UCLA was the favorite to be No. 1. I like Missouri as a sleeper.
(Not Rays related, but I'm going to go on record and pick Rutgers for the 19th straight year.)

Brian (RI): Niemann or Price gets the call fisrt?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:44 PM ET ) Niemann, only because I think the Rays will try to bring Price along a little slowly at first.
(Duh.)

ken (mass): thanks! another one...albeit different players, Jennings or Lowrie?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:47 PM ET ) Desmond Jennings. But Jed Lowrie is three levels ahead of him, so you could take the safer route and go with him.
(That's a bit like asking 'Iodized salt or hooded sweatshirts?')

Josh (Los Angeles, CA): Kershaw, McGee, or Price?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:52 PM ET ) Kershaw. Don't forget to include Franklin Morales with that group.
(Agreed. I'd say is goes Kershaw, McGee/Price are even, Morales.)

Steve (El Paso): Wade Davis or Johnny Cueto?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:04 PM ET ) Davis. But Cueto is underrated.
(I actually asked this EXACT same question.)

jaymoff (Salem, OR): How many Rays prospects would be #1's in other organizations?

Kevin Goldstein: As many as six.

Tim (Portland): What's your take on Pedro Alvarez?

Kevin Goldstein: Obviously, there's a lot to like there. Very good bat, lot's of power, not a great defensive player, but more than good enough to stay at 3B. I don't think I'd put him in Ryan Braun's class offensively, but again, he can stay at the position, so that makes up a lot for it.

Kevin (FCq): Do you think Jeff Niemann going to get a fair shot at the rotation with Wade Davis, David Price, and Jake McGee banging on the door?

Kevin Goldstein: I think everyone, including some of the second-tier pitchers in that system like Talbot and Mason will get a 'fair shot' at the roation -- I just think there are only so many jobs there.
(The key to getting your question posted is to accidentally put a "q" in the location and forgetting to use the word "is.")

jlarsen (DRays Bay): In the case Longoria starts the year in Durham, do you think Joel Guzman will be an adequate stopgap 3B for the Rays or would we be better served by signing a Free Agent 3B?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think Joel Guzman is even an adequate stopgap at 3B for Durham at this point.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Baseball America left Fernando Perez off their top 10 prospect list for the Rays. How can this be?

Kevin Goldstein: Ask them.
(I really like how active the Rays blogging community is in these chats)

Bron (Ontario): Gorkys Hernandez or Desmond Jennings?

Kevin Goldstein: Jennings by a wide margin. Both are top 100 guys though.

Bill Ballew: Perez is an early 20s guy in the Rays organization, and I don't see him being higher than a mid-teens player in most other organizations. He does a lot of things well, but his power is almost nonexistent and his age is on the verge of working against him.
(What? He hit 8 homeruns last year. His power is below-average, not "non-existant.")

BaseballAmerica Top 10 Breakdown

2008-01-09T10:07:00.000-05:00

BaseballAmerica put their top 10 Rays prospects up online today, along with scouting reports if you're a subscriber. Without further ado...

The List
1. Evan Longoria
2. David Price
3. Jake McGee
4. Wade Davis
5. Reid Brignac
6. Desmond Jennings
7. Jeff Niemann
8. Jeremy Hellickson
9. Ryan Royster
10. Chris Mason

I was a little surprised Price ranked ahead of both Davis and McGee, but it's tough to go wrong when ranking those three. Besides that, the top 8 has nothing to argue about, but Royster and Mason are mild surprises at 9 and 10.

Royster's stats at Columbus were nothing short of phenomenal, but he was old for the league and really, really underwhelmed in his first 3 seasons, repeating Princeton in 2005 and hitting .247 in Hudson Valley in 2006. His defense is questionable in the outfield, and I'm not sure how good his bat actually is.

As for Mason, I actually like him a lot, but I'll spoil things a bit by saying I had 3 guys not on this list ahead of him on my top 30. Mason, like Royster, had great numbers in 2007, but he's a short righty without a plus pitch. He lives on deception, savvy, and control, and that combination might not play at the major-league level.

The Scouting
Best Hitter for Average Evan Longoria
Best Power Hitter Evan Longoria
Best Strike-Zone Discipline John Jaso
Fastest Baserunner Fernando Perez
Best Athlete Desmond Jennings
Best Fastball Jake McGee
Best Curveball Wade Davis
Best Slider David Price
Best Changeup Mitch Talbot
Best Control Chris Mason
Best Defensive Catcher Christian Lopez
Best Defensive Infielder Reid Brignac
Best Infield Arm Jairo de la Rosa
Best Defensive Outfielder Fernando Perez
Best Outfield Arm Justin Ruggiano

Reid Brignac is an absolute shock as best defensive infielder. Either he's made great strides or our infield defense is poor at best in the minors. I'm not sure how I missed Jaso for best strike-zone discipline, that was probably a pretty easy choice. Fernando Perez and Desmond Jennings in a foot race would be interesting, and if Perez is faster, it probably isn't by much. I chose Jennings for best baserunner because his SB-CS was 45-15, whereas Perez's was 32-18, below-average for a guy with his wheels. Mason and Rollins were the two I debated between for best control, Mason likely won because he posted a similar walk rate(2.15 for Rollins, 2.45 for Mason) at a higher level. We don't have anyone with a cannon in the outfield, but Ruggiano's arm is at least above-average.

The Scouting
Obviously I can't post complete scouting reports here, but I did pick out some interesting, copyright-friendly tidbits about each player(BA quotes in italics, my own thoughts in regular type):

Evan Longoria: "Defensively, Longoria is an above-average third baseman with soft hands and solid body control. His footwork is a plus, both with his lateral movement and with charging the ball on slow rollers. His arm strength is another plus, and his throws have good carry and accuracy."

We all know what Longoria can do with the bat, so it's really a good sign that his defense is also pretty highly regarded. Honestly, I'm not sure there's much more work to be done in the minors. Also, amusingly, Bill Ballew called Iwmaura "Akinori Otsuka" in his writeup. Can we get someone else to do these things next year?

David Price: "His fastball has great late life and armside run while sitting in the low 90s and touching 95 mph. He throws a plus-plus slider that reaches 87 mph and has a late, sharp bite. His changeup is also a plus pitch with excellent deception and fade."

Obviously Price hasn't played pro ball, and that tends to show a player's shortcomings. The most ridiculous thing here is that someone who has, in BA's words, "no knocks on him," is only ranked #2.

Jake McGee: "His heater sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 with impressive movement. His slider has good tilt and he has improved the depth and fade on his changeup."

It should be noted that when McGee touched 98, he did it on the notoriously slow Montgomery Biscuits' radar gun, so we're really talking 99-100. At this point, McGee just needs to continue to improve his control and offspeed offerings.

Wade Davis: "He relies heavily on a four-seam fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96. He also throws a hard 11-to-5 curveball in the upper 70s with occasional two-plane break."

Davis would probably be the #1 prospect in 8-10 other organizations. The best part about him may not even be his wicked stuff, but his poise on the mound and the intensity he brings.

Reid Brignac: "He uses the entire field and has plus power that really stands out for a shortstop. His speed and defense are solid."

I don't think Brignac took a step back in '07 as much as he just held his ground. I'd start to worry if his numbers don't show signs of rebounding in 2008, but I think his bat will pick back up again. The acquisition of Jason Bartlett ensures he won't be rushed.

Desmond Jennings: "At the plate, Jennings has a discerning eye with the ability to make contact and drive the ball in the gaps. He has all the tools to become a top-flight leadoff hitter."

Jennings is probably the most "exciting" player on the list. He's a top-flight athlete with plus tools across the board, the lone exception his average arm. Scouts love his toolbox, statheads love his plate approach and eye. Just a lot to love here.

Jeff Niemann: "He still has to prove that he's durable after having arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2003 and a minor shoulder operation in 2006. He pitched through some shoulder pain last August and had a small bone spur removed after the season."

Durability is still Niemann's biggest foe, though even when healthy he's probably no more than a #2-3 starter. He'll be 25 by Opening Day 2008, so it's time for Niemann to step up.

Jeremy Hellickson: "Hellickson commands a fastball that sits at 92-93 mph and touches 95. He has good feel for a curveball that jumps on hitters."

The Rays have been understandably cautious with Hellickson(I love that name, by the way), but he'll finally play a full season in 2008(he was held back in extended spring training last season with a sore arm) at Vero Beach and potentially finishing at Montgomery. All the concerns about short righties are there, but Hellickson has the stuff and command to overcome them.

Ryan Royster: "Royster is a classic country boy with tremendous bat speed and plus-plus raw power to all fields."

This is where we have to disagree. I'm not sure he has plus-plus power, as he only hit 25 homeruns in his first 3 seasons. The report mentions he cut down on his swing, which may have led to his breakout. I'd like to see him do it again.

Chris Mason: "Mason works fast with an unorthodox delivery and fills the strike zone, with managers rating his control the best in the SL."

That's Mason's resume: Delivery, control, fringy stuff. His changeup and slider rate well, but his fastball barely cracks 90, and for a righty that can be a big problem in the majors.

Top 30 Prospects: #20 Mike McCormick

2008-01-07T21:34:00.001-05:00

#20 Mike McCormick, C, 21 years old, spent 2007 at short-season Hudson Valley
#21-30

McCormick was hitting decently, but his struggles in the field forced him to repeat at rookie-level Princeton in 2006. A high-school shortstop, the Rays moved him to 3B where he booted balls and made errant throw after errant throw. The front office decided to try his strong arm behind the plate, and the results at Hudson Valley were better than expected.

Unlike the Sergio Pedroza experiment, McCormick continued to hit after being moved, and his defense was surprisingly solid. He threw out approximately 25% of baserunners, a number that figures to improve as he becomes more comfortable. He hit for a .276/.352/.469 line in a pitcher's park in what's generally regarded as a pitcher's league.

McCormick's bat has some good pop with power potential, but his usually patient plate approach can erode at times and lead to slumps. In August, his walk rate plummeted from 15% to under 5%, a trend which carried into September, where he hit only .167. His stat line was buoyed by a tremendous month of July, so finding a way to keep his production up throughout the season will be the next step in his development.

He'll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, taking over for Nevin Ashley as Ashley moves up to Vero Beach. He still has to work on his receiving and game-calling skills, but it'll only be his second season behind the plate. He shouldn't have too much of a problem adjusting at the plate, provided he maintains solid walk and strikeout numbers.

Best Tools

2008-01-05T16:49:00.001-05:00

When BaseballAmerica puts their Rays top 10 prospect list online Wednesday, they'll have with it a write-up, a chat, and a best tools sidebar. I've seen the list already since it's in the print version, but I don't know if the best tools thing is also there; if it is, I haven't seen it. So right now I'll put down who I think has the best tools. The categories are:

Best Hitter for Average: Evan Longoria
Best Power Hitter: Evan Longoria
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Fernando Perez
Fastest Baserunner: Desmond Jennings(barely over Perez)
Best Athlete: Desmond Jennings
Best Fastball: Jake McGee
Best Curveball: Wade Davis
Best Slider: David Price
Best Changeup: Mitch Talbot
Best Control: Heath Rollins
Best Defensive Catcher: Shawn Riggans
Best Defensive Infielder: Patrick Cottrell
Best Infield Arm: Neil Walton(I admit with the last 2 I just copied last year's picks)
Best Defensive Outfielder: Fernando Perez
Best Outfield Arm: D.J. Jones(this is sort of a wild guess)

What do you guys think?

My top 30 will be updated either later tonight or tomorrow.

DRaysBay and Rays Anatomy Top Prospect Lists

2008-01-03T01:10:00.000-05:00

Our own top 30 will get going again tomorrow, but in the meantime, you can take a look at DRaysBay's Top 30 Prospect list, while Rays Anatomy finished up their top 10 today.

Quick thoughts on each:

DRaysBay: I was surprised to see guys like Ryan Reid and Emeel Salem so high. Reid's stuff is decent, but at 22, I'm not sure if there's enough projectability to turn it into major-league stuff. Emeel Salem seems like a great character guy, and he mixes very consistent contact with excellent speed, but I don't like the lack of power and extra-base hits. He'll be 23 and just starting full-season ball for 2008, so his production is always going to have to overcome the age-relative-to-league questions.

Conversely, I was shocked to see Matt Walker, who I had at #21, not even get a mention from any of the 5 writers who collaborated on this list. I understand he had a terrible year, but he's still got an above-average fastball and a plus curveball, and there's plenty of time to rebound. Call me a sucker for tools. Also, Alex Cobb was only on one writer's list, and even then he was at #29(I had him at #24). I just think the fact he's athletic with a solid but not outstanding repertoire bodes well for future development.

Rays Anatomy: With only a top 10, there's obviously a lot less wiggle room. I won't compare it to my as-of-yet unrevealed top 10, but SanInocencio had Desmond Jennings two spots lower than DRaysBay and 4 spots lower than BaseballProspectus's Kevin Goldstein. I thought for the most part SanInocencio got it correct, and his write-ups were very thorough and enjoyable.

Top 30 Prospects: #21-30 Round-up

2008-01-01T23:20:00.001-05:00

One more time:

#21 - Matt Walker, RHP
#22 - Sergio Pedroza, OF
#23 - Reid Fronk, OF
#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

As you probably noticed, almost all 10 of these players fell into one of two categories: Those whose performance exceeded their tools(Nowak, Hughes, Ashley, Pedroza) and those whose tools exceeded their performance(Townsend, Barratt, Johnson, Walker). Ashley and Johnson might be debatable as to their belonging in their respective categories, but I feel comfortable putting them there.

The two guys that didn't fit were a pair of teammates at Hudson Valley: Cobb and Fronk. They both are solid across the board in all they do, but neither has one spot where they particularly shine through. Each lacks a true plus tool or plus pitch, and their futures are very much dependent on getting the most out of what they have. What I mean by that is, Fronk's not going to wake up with light-tower power, and Cobb isn't going to roll out of bed throwing 98 mph(though Cobb has more developmental time left than Fronk, obviously, and there's a chance his velocity spikes. But I digress). However, each has a chance to develop their tools to a level where they're playable at the Major League level.

As for what I'd expect from this group, I'd guess maybe 4 or 5 see some big-league time, with perhaps 1 or 2 becoming a regular. I don't see a whole lot of probably star potential here, but then again, I guess that's why they're the lower third of the list. Certainly Walker and Townsend have the ceiling of a star, but the odds of them hitting that are really slim.

Just for the record, this is probably the range that Joel Guzman and Shawn Riggans would've placed had I considered them for the list.

Top 30 Prospects: #21 Matt Walker

2008-01-01T19:55:00.000-05:00

It's a new year, but there's nothing new lately in the Rays world. With that, the top 30 rolls on...

#21 - Matt Walker, RHP, 21 years old, spent 2007 at high-A Vero Beach
#22 - Sergio Pedroza, OF
#23 - Reid Fronk, OF
#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Yikes. Can you believe this guy entered the 2007 season being mentioned in the same breath as Wade Davis and Jake McGee? The three were all drafted in the stacked 2004 draft, and formed one of the best rotations in the Midwest League with Southwest Michigan in 2006. Walker placed 8th on BaseballAmerica's top 10 Rays prospect list last offseason, just one spot behind Davis and three behind McGee.

The trio started at Vero Beach this year, but while Davis and McGee dominated and earned promotions to Montgomery, Walker faltered and earned a demotion to the bullpen. It's not too hard to see what Walker's problem was: 82 walks in 95 innings is never going to lead to good things. His walk rate was high in 2006(41 in 82 innings, 4.50/9), but clearly his control took a huge step backwards.

Walker's pure stuff is probably on par with anyone in the organization. He can bring it in the mid-90's with life, and his 12-to-6 curveball rated as the best in the system. Obviously, though, he lacks the command to be able to harness his stuff consistently.

If you're looking for a silver lining from his '07 season, his strikeout rate dropped only by 0.3/9 innings. While it's a bit low for a power pitcher(a touch over 7) and I figured he'd improve upon for that, the fact it didn't drop off too badly is good. Also, Walker allowed a high number of unearned runs: 16 in just 95 innings. James Shields and Scott Kazmir, by comparison, combined to "allow" 17 in over 420 innings. Walker's fielding-independent ERA is nearly identical to his actual ERA, but I can't help but feel shoddy defense led to longer innings and inflated his hit rate at least a little bit.

Walker has a lot to figure out in 2008. Chief among them, will he be a starter or reliever? The Rays moved him to the bullpen toward the end of the season, but he was equally ineffective there. There was debate even before 2007 about whether his stuff played better out of the bullpen, so there's a decent chance he starts 2007 back in Vero Beach's pen. Whatever role he's in, he'll need to greatly improve his control to regain his status as an impact prospect.

Top 30 Prospects: #22 Sergio Pedroza

2007-12-30T00:43:00.000-05:00

#22 - Sergio Pedroza, OF, 23 years old, spent 2007 at high-A Vero Beach
#23 - Reid Fronk, OF
#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Pedroza's 2007 was wildly inconsistent. He tore up the high-A Cal League in 2006, but the Rays held him back in an attempt to ease the burden of learning to play catcher. But instead of continuing to rake, his bat seemed to take a step back while his defense behind the plate wasn't cutting it.

He got off to a horrifically slow start, hitting .176 out of the gate in April. He rebounded some in May before going back in the tank in June. The Rays moved him off catcher and back to the more familiar OF/DH role. And then, as the story goes, he got contact lenses and never looked back.

Even after the catcher experiment ended, the Rays kept Pedroza in Vero Beach and watched him take off. He hit over .330 and hit 15 of his 22 HRs in July and August and got his OPS over .900, which was a minor miracle considering how he started the year. He was promoted to Montgomery for the playoffs, and it was Pedroza who hit the 9th inning HR in game 5 that gave the Biscuits the win and the title. Had it not been for a sensational series from Chris Nowak, Pedroza probably would've been named SL Championship Series MVP.

Even though it ended well, Pedroza's 2007 was a step back in some ways. His walk rate fell from over 16% in 2006 to 9.5% this year. Pedroza's pretty much a two-trick pony as it is, as power and a disciplined eye are his only two plus assets. His prospect status is already fringy, and he can't afford to let his walk rate continue to fall. Age relative to league is another issue with Pedroza, as he'll be 24 on Opening Day next season.

Still, his bat's been doing a lot to silence some of those doubts. He's hit nearly every step of the way, so I'm going to look at him as a legitimate prospect until that stops. He's a below-average fielder, so he's likely looking at a future in the DH role. He'll start 2007 the same place he left it, Montgomery, and 2008 should be a very telling year for Pedroza. Armed with contact lenses and a position he can play, it's time to see if Pedroza can continue to rake at the upper levels.

'07 Stats:
Batting Average: .286..........At Bats: 399.....Triples: 4.................Walks: 43
On-Base Percentage: .368.....Hits: 27..........Home Runs: 22..........Strikeouts: 95
Slugging Percentage: .907.....Doubles: 27.....Runs Batted In: 70.....Stolen Bases: 1

Top 30 Prospects: #23 Reid Fronk

2007-12-24T13:57:00.000-05:00

#23 - Reid Fronk, OF, 21 years old spent 2007 at Hudson Valley
#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Reid Fronk arrived in Hudson Valley a little late than the other college draftees, having led the Tar Heels to the finals of the College World Series, where they lost to Oregon State. Drafted in the 7th round, Fronk showed no signs of fatigue, leading the Renegades in hitting, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Fronk played mostly in the infield at UNC, but he's the very definition of a 'tweener in the pros: Can't field well enough to stick in the infield, bat doesn't profile to be good enough in the corner outfield. He has good bat speed and above-average contact skills, but only fringy power and average speed.

Still, he's done a good job getting the most of his tools, putting up an OPS above .900 his sophomore and junior seasons at UNC and then again at Hudson Valley. The fact that he hits from the left side certainly works in his favor, but he's going to have to continue to produce to move along in the system.

There's no question he can handle full-season ball, and he'll probably report to Columbus to open 2008. A lefty bat who can play multiple positions is useful, but he'll need to improve in both facets, and with a college player, I'm just not sure that's going to happen.

Top 30 Prospects: #24 Alex Cobb

2007-12-19T13:28:00.000-05:00

And now, I take a break from not studying for my last final exam to finally update this blog(expect a much quicker pace starting now).

#24 - Alex Cobb, RHP, 20 years old, spent 2007 at Hudson Valley(was 19 years old for the season)
#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

The Rays' 4th round draft pick in 2006, Cobb pitched only 8 innings in Princeton last season, but showed enough to start the 2007 campaign at Hudson Valley. He finished 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 81.1 innings, but just about all his numbers tailed off toward the end of the year.

Through 46 innings, Cobb boasted a 2.93 ERA and a 42-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. A BaseballAmerica blurb on him on their weekly Hot Sheet put his fastball velocity at 91 with some sink and noted his above-average curveball. The report also said he's a good athlete with smooth mechanics.

The key for Cobb is going to be adding a few ticks to his fastball. He's only 6'1", so he doesn't have as much projectability as you'd like, but being athletic certainly helps. If he can get his fastball up to the 93-94 MPH range and maintain the sink, he'll be about 15 spots higher on this list next year.

Cobb's 2007 season came with two red flags. One, as noted, he faded pretty badly down the stretch. His ERA in his last 10 games was 4.20, and he struck out only 6 over his last 14 innings. No injury was reported, so it was likely a fatigue issue.

The other thing to keep in mind is that HV's home park, Dutchess Stadium, is a notorious pitcher's park, and Cobb's splits bear this out: His ERA was more than a run higher on the road.

Even though he's not as good a prospect as Jeremy Hellickson was out of Hudson Valley, it wouldn't surprise me to see him take the same path next year. That is, start him in extended spring training rather than throw him directly into the fire of full-season ball. Then when they feel he's ready, he can report to Columbus. This way, the team is better able to limit his innings, which is certainly important considering his fade down the stretch.

Cobb is a potential 2008 break-out prospect, but I still feel his future ultimately depends on adding some velocity to his fastball.

Rays acquire Gibson for Dukes

2007-12-03T17:10:00.000-05:00

The Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to the Washington Nationals today, acquiring minor-league lefthanded pitcher Glenn Gibson in return. BaseballAmerica rated Gibson as the Nationals #8 prospect this offseason:

Background: The son of former major league lefthander Paul Gibson, Glenn showed off his superior feel for pitching at short-season Vermont. He might have been the New-York Penn League's best pitcher until his final two starts, when he tried to pitch while sick and saw his ERA balloon from 1.74 to 3.10. It was later discovered he had mononucleosis, causing him to drop about 20 pounds and reversing his solid progress in the weight room.

Strengths: Gibson's savvy makes his stuff play up. He pores over hitting and pitching charts before every start so he can exploit weaknesses, and he mixes speeds and locations very well. He can throw his plus changeup in any count for strikes, his slow downer curveball can be above-average at times and his fastball can touch 91 mph and has late movement.

Weaknesses: Gibson's fastball sits in the high 80s and isn't overpowering, which limits his upside and margin for error. He still needs to add strength to his frame, particularly his lower half, to improve his durability and velocity.

The Future: Gibson is ready for a full-season league and should begin 2008 in low Class A. He looks like a safe bet to reach the big leagues as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Not a fan of this trade AT ALL. Dukes is at a higher level with a much higher ceiling, I know about his past, but I really don't get how this makes us a better team.

Rays acquire Morlan in Delmon deal

2007-11-28T22:24:00.000-05:00

The lone minor-leaguer to be a part of today's blockbuster deal(read about it at DRaysBay here) was Eduardo Morlan, a Twins relief farmhand who was a late substitution for Juan Rincon.

Morlan is a 6'2", 178 pound right-hander who will be 22 on Opening Day 2008. Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspects rated him as the #4 prospect in the Twins farm system, having this to say:

The Good: Morlan has both the stuff and command to be an effective late-innings, power-based reliever. He pounds the strike zone with a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98 mph, and his slider is a hard-biting pitch with plenty of tilt. He showed a lot more comfort as a reliever, where he could just grip it and rip it as opposed to the more pace-based approach needed as a starter.

The Bad: Morlan was prone to big innings at times, and needs to do a better job of keeping his emotions in check. When he got into trouble, he sometimes would overthrow, which led into him elevating his pitches, which led to more trouble. His mechanics aren’t dreadful, but they are better suited to short stints.

Timetable: Morlan will begin 2008 back in Double-A with the hope that he’ll be ready for the big leagues in 2009, when Joe Nathan will likely be gone via free agency.

BaseballAmerica with more on Morlan:

Born in Cuba, Morlan was a third-round pick in 2004, signed for $420,000 and moved to the bullpen in 2006. He had one of the biggest arms in the Twins system, with a fastball that touched 97 mph at times and a mid-80s power slider. However, the 22-year-old Morlan loses fastball command when he throws that hard, and the Twins had him focused on command with a heater in the low 90s, averaging 92-93 mph. His slider remains a plus pitch; at times it has excellent two-plane depth and touches 86 mph, making it a true strikeout offering. Morlan's fastball lacks significant life, and he doesn't command the strike zone with it. While he had success in the Arizona Fall League, with 12 scoreless outings, he walked six in 12 2/3 innings, and the Twins believed his lack of fastball command—due to persistent over-throwing and over-rotating in his delivery—limited his ceiling to that of setup man, rather than closer.

He had some crazy strikeout numbers in the Florida State League(92 in 65 innings) and pitched 4 effective AA innings. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, but he also does a good job of limiting the walks.

Overall, I'm not a fan of the trade, but we might have something special here in Morlan.

Top 30 Prospects: #25 Elliot Johnson

2007-11-05T16:38:00.000-05:00

#25 - Elliot Johnson, 2B, 23 years old, spent 2007 at AAA Durham
#26 - Nevin Ashley, C
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Elliot Johnson's 2007 campaign was, at best, a huge disappointment. After putting up solid numbers in 2006, some felt Johnson was primed for a big 2007 since he had handled the transition from high-A to AA. But he came nowhere close to matching 2006's .790 OPS or 46 extra-base hits.

Instead, he hit a paltry .207 and struck out 139 times in 463 at-bats. His walk rate stayed relatively low(43), leading to an OBP of just .285. He hit 17 doubles, 6 triples, and 11 home runs, and also swiped 16(the 2006 numbers, respectively: 21, 10, 15, 20). His slugging percentage plummeted from .455 to .341.

He'll be back at Durham in 2008, and he'll really need to better his '07 season. He is one of a few players that could be called up if there's a need due to injury, even if his numbers might not dictate a promotion(sort of like Joel Guzman this year).

Internet problems over, back on track tomorrow

2007-10-29T13:54:00.000-04:00

Sorry, had some trouble with the internet mostly resulting from stupidity on my end. Back tomorrow.

Top 30 Prospects: #26 Nevin Ashley

2007-10-17T11:31:00.000-04:00

#26 - Nevin Ashley, C, 23 years old, spent 2007 at low-A Columbus
#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Nevin Ashley is another prospect who you might say lacks "flash." A 6th-round pick in 2006, Ashley hit Appalachian League pitching well enough last year to skip Hudson Valley and go straight to full-season ball with Columbus.

He couldn't match his impressive line from last season, falling from .333/.440/.477 with Princeton to .280/.354/.431. The biggest thing there to me is that he couldn't he couldn't keep his walk rate up, and for a guy whose bat isn't anything terribly special, he'll need an advanced eye to succeed at the higher levels.

As with most college draftees, age relative to league is an issue with Ashley. He was 21/22 with the P-Rays last year and played against a lot of guys who were fresh out of high school. This year he was 22/23 with Columbus, which is a bit better, but still a tad on the older side. Even taking into account his position, a .785 OPS from a 22/23-year old in the Sally League just doesn't blow me away.

It's not just simply about production, of course, but it's not like Ashley is a big "tools" guy. His strikeout rate was higher than league average, he didn't show any sort of tantalizing power, and his best tool seems to be his speed, evidenced by his 8 triples and 20 stolen bases.

Ashley will likely get bumped up to the Florida State League for 2008, and I know I've been saying this a lot, but he's going to have to put up good numbers since his tools aren't going to take him very far.

Top 30 Prospects: #27 Rhyne Hughes

2007-10-15T11:09:00.000-04:00

#27 - Rhyne Hughes, 1B, 24 years old, spent 2007 at high-A Vero Beach and AA Montgomery
#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Rhyne Hughes had as good a season as anyone in the Rays' system, but this is a classic case of the numbers not telling the whole story.

Hughes started out the season as 23-year old in the Florida State League, which is already one strike against him. He had a great year for Vero Beach, posting a .329/.392/.515 line, good enough to earn a promotion to Montgomery. He held his own there in 21 games with a line of .295/.378/.449 before his season was cut short by a scary injury. He was struck in the face with a ball, eventually needing false teeth put in.

While it's possible that 2007 was his breakout year, his anemic .613 OPS in the Midwest League a year ago leads me to believe it was a fluke. Hughes drew rave reviews from FSL managers about his plate approach and batting eye, but many question his power. He's a plus defender at first base, but that isn't going outweigh concerns about his bat.

Hughes will likely start 2008 in AA with the Biscuits, and he'll need to prove that 2007 was no accident.

Top 30 Prospects: #28 Jon Barratt

2007-10-11T14:32:00.000-04:00

#28 - Jon Barratt, LHP, 22 years old, spent 2007 at AA Montgomery
#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

Barratt's 2007 season got off to an ominous start when he was held back in extended Spring Training recovering from an arm ailment. Things didn't get much better when he finally joined the Biscuits in early May, battling control issues all season, and winding up with some very disappointing numbers, especially considering he posted a sub-3 ERA in the Cal League in 2006.

Walks were the biggest problem for the 5'9" southpaw in 2007, issuing 59 free passes in just 90 innings. His strikeouts were also way down from a year ago with only 48(as opposed to 100 in 110 innings in '06). Add that to allowing more than a hit per inning and nine gopherballs and you have yourself a very down year.

That said, it's hard to know if Barratt just isn't that good, or if the arm injury had some sort of lingering effect on him throughout the year. His lightning-quick arm is his greatest strength, and if the injury slowed him down, it's no surprise that he struggled. My theory is that he altered his delivery somehow, perhaps to lessen the pain on his arm, and that threw him out of whack. His control was pretty good last year, when he walked just 37.

In addition to a fastball that he can run up to 94(or at least, could), Barratt features an above-average changeup, a decent splitter, and an average curveball. Obviously his diminutive frame is working against him, and it may be that putting all the stress on his arm is what caused the injury in the first place. He's going to have to prove himself at every level, and obviously after his 2007 season, he's headed back to Montgomery in 2008.

I'm not sure how much of a future Barratt has as a starting pitcher, so it may be wise to convert him to the bullpen eventually. Getting him innings is important to his development, obviously, and he struggled as a reliever with Visalia in 2005, but a move to a relief role might be the best bet. He bounced back strong in 2006 while repeating the Cal League, so hopefully he can make the proper adjustments and do the same in 2008 and re-emerge as a viable prospect.

Going to Arizona

2007-10-09T12:26:00.000-04:00

This year the Devil Rays combine with the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Mets to form the Scottsdale Scorpions. I already mentioned that Chris Nowak will be representing the Rays this year in the Arizona Fall League, but what about the 7 others?

Nick DeBarr, RHRP: DeBarr was a rule 5 draft pick by the Boston Red Sox last winter, but he was returned to the Rays in Spring Training and assigned to AA Montgomery. DeBarr spent all of 2007 there, where he posted a 1.34 WHIP in 83 innings(53 appearances). His strikeout/walk ratio of 52/33 isn't anything special, but he gets his fair share of ground balls and just seems to get the job done. He'll never be a shutdown-type reliever, but he's a candidate for a middle-relief spot one day.

He'll likely start 2008 in Durham's bullpen.

Calvin Medlock, RHRP: Medlock was acquired along with Brian Shackelford from the Reds in the deal for Jorge Cantu. A 5'10" righty who'll be 26 in November, Medlock dominated the Southern League before struggling in the International League, both with Louisville(Reds) and then with Durham. Control seems to be his main issue(23 walks in 30.2 AAA innings), but he only walked 5 and struck out 59 in 47 innings in AA with the Reds. His strikeout numbers also dropped with Durham, although that could potentially just be the result of a small sample size. He's a flyball pitcher, although he only allowed 5 HRs in 79.1 innings overall in 2007.

Medlock was likely sent to the AFL so the Rays could get a better read on what kind of stuff he has. He is on the 40-man roster, so I think he has a very real shot to win a major-league bullpen job out of Spring Training, depending on his AFL/ST performance and who else the organization brings in. Otherwise, he'll start 2008 in with the Bulls.

Evan Meek, RHRP: All these right-handed relievers getting sent to Arizona... who's next, Chad Orvella? Meek was acquired in a waiver deal along with Dale Thayer(why isn't he going to Arizona, anyway?) for Russell Branyan. Meek pitched 5 innings for Visalia in 2006 before spending all of 2007 at Montgomery. He's sort of a rare breed: A solid ground ball pitcher(2.26 groundball/flyball ratio) who also struck out more than a batter per inning(69 in 67), but was otherwise pretty well-hit(74 hits allowed). He ending the season absolutely scorching, not allowing an earned run over his final 14 innings(9 appearances), striking out 21 and walking 5.

He was 24, old for AA, but I think there's at least some chance he can be a big-leaguer. Again, I think Durham's bullpen is his most likely destination for 2008.

Mike Prochaska, LHP: Prochaska's been the AA/AAA swingman pitcher the last two years, pitching 55 innings at Durham and close to 200 at Montgomery. A good, old-fashioned "crafty lefty," Prochaska relies on location and mixing up speeds and pitches to get hitters out rather than pure stuff. He posted a 2.55 ERA in 5 starts at Durham in 2007, but his peripherals lead you to believe that was sort of a fluke. Biscuits announcer Jim Tocco attributed Prochaska's successful 2007 campaign to more movement and deception.

That said, I think this spot could have gone to someone more... prospect-y. Proachaska's 27, so I don't know how much of a future he has. He's done some great things for the organization, and he's pitched well in big games for Montgomery, but I would've rather seen someone like Thayer or even Jae Kuk Ryu.

Evan Longoria, 3B: If I have my facts straight, Longoria will only be with the team for about 2 weeks before he travels with Team USA. I'll write plenty about Longoria on this blog, believe me, but now I'll just say that I think the reason he was sent was to get him as many ABs as a primer to win the 3B job out of Spring Training in 2008.

Reid Brignac, SS: Brignac had a disappointing 2007, but there were some positives: He drew 55 walks, hit 17 homeruns and 30 doubles, and cut down on his strikeouts. He still has a long ways to go, but I think that like Longoria, the AFL is serving as a sort of "hurry-up" process. There's some debate about whether Brignac should start 2008 back at Montgomery, and I think the organization is trying to get him some more at-bats in preparation for starting 2008 at Durham(personally, I'd start him there anyway, but whatever).

Hopefully Brignac can use the AFL as a place to not only show he can hit, but also to work on his glove and footwork at SS.

John Jaso, C: For some reason, Jaso isn't talked about nearly as much as he should be. He posted an .893 OPS splitting time between catcher and DH while he continued to recover from shoulder surgery. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, as evidenced by his 59 walks to just 49 strikeouts. He slugged 12 HRs and 24 doubles in 380 at-bats. The questions, of course, are about his defense and his arm, and I'm pretty sure that's why he was sent to the AFL. The Rays are letting him come back from the arm trouble slowly, and while his catching workload should increase at Durham next year, he'll still likely DH more than a few games.

It's worth noting that he went ice cold in July with a .270 OBP, but was over .339 in every other month.

---

The Scorpions kick off their season tonight, and I'll have updates on how all of these guys perform.

Top 30 Prospects: #29 Chris Nowak

2007-10-08T13:37:00.000-04:00

#29 - Chris Nowak, 1B, 24 years old, spent 2007 at AA Montgomery
#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP

The first thing that jumps out at you from Nowak's stat line is the remarkable consistency: Advancing one level a year, his batting average has gone .304-.308-.304 and his OBP for the past three years goes .398-.397-.396. He OPSed over .830 in all three years, and it seems that he was a benefit of the Cal League power bump in 2006, posting a .478 SLG that year while hovering around .440 in '05 and '07.

A 19th-rounder in 2004 out of South Carolina-Spartansburg, Nowak was a 3B in college and doesn't possess the traditional 1B tools. He's a solid hitter, but certainly isn't a masher. He has surprising speed, racking up 7 triples and swiping 35 bases over the past two seasons. A right-hander at the plate and in the field, Nowak hit lefties to the tune of a .358/.432/.508 line, although he doesn't necessarily hit for better power numbers against LHPs(3 of his four triples came off lefties).

Nowak's 24 years old, which means two things: Each year he's been a bit old for a prospect in whatever league he played in. His stats are so consistent from year to year, however, that I don't think this is a huge strike against him. The other thing it means is that he's almost close to a finished product. The good news is that power is generally the last tool to develop, and being 24 doesn't preclude you from progressing. Since he's limited to 1st base(he can play 3rd base, but I think he only really profiles as a 1st baseman), the power is going to have to come. The good news is that he seems to have a good plate approach, can make pretty consistent contact, and his 6'5" 225 frame is condusive to a power approach.

Nowak, who took home the 2007 Southern League Championship Series MVP, is headed to the Arizona Fall League, which kicks off tomorrow(look for a preview on this blog!) and should open 2008 as Durham's 1st baseman. Nowak's ceiling is likely as a platoon 1st baseman, but him reaching that depends almost entirely on how(if) his power develops. He obviously won't develop elite power at this point, but if he can start hitting lefties for more power, he could be a decent bench/platoon guy.

Coming tomorrow: Southern League top 20 rundown plus an Arizona Fall League preview.

FSL Top 20 Round-up

2007-10-04T12:56:00.000-04:00

No intro, let's get right to it: Baseball America's top 20 Florida State League prospects. 3 Rays made the list, starting with southpaw Jake McGee at #3...

McGee and teammate Wade Davis have had a friendly rivalry throughout their minor league career. So when Davis got the call to Double-A before McGee, it fired up the lefty. He responded the right way, sharpening his command and throwing back-to-back seven-inning scoreless outings to earn a promotion to rejoin Davis.

The FSL strikeout leader with 145 in 117 innings, McGee is blessed with rare velocity for a southpaw, as he sits at 93-95 mph and can touch 98. His fastball rendered lefthanders helpless—they hit .141/.200/.214 against him in the FSL—and Vero Beach manager Joe Szekely said just one lefty managed to get good swings against McGee: Bruce, who went 1-for-4 but hit the ball hard.

"To watch those two go after each other was a real pleasure," Szekely said. "It was fun because you knew it was a battle that you could see happening for years to come."

McGee's changeup was very erratic early in the season, but he developed more feel and confidence in it as the season went along. His breaking ball has good tilt, though he sometimes struggles to locate it. Both could end up as plus pitches if he improves his command.

The only guys to place ahead of McGee on this list were probable consensus #1 prospect Jay Bruce and the toolsy Cameron Maybin, and I even like McGee over Maybin. McGee's fastball is simply electric, to the point where he hardly even needed his secondary pitches. He ran into some inconsistency in Montgomery later in the year(and as you'll see, didn't qualify for the SL top 20) but there's no denying McGee can deal. For a rough and dirty comparison, Scott Kazmir struck out 1.09 batters an inning in the FSL, McGee struck out 1.24(although Kazmir was a year younger.

And of course, you can't have Jake McGee without Wade Davis right on his tail at #4:

Even though he's No. 4 on this list, it's not hard to project Davis as a future front-end starter. McGee ranks ahead of him because he's a lefty and has a tick more velocity, but Davis is more polished and has quality stuff as well.

Davis sits at 92-93 mph and can hump his fastball up to 96 mph when needed. He throws his tight 11-to-5 curveball at any point in the count and his changeup has developed into an average pitch that he trusts. He also throws a cutter that he can drop over for strikes, giving hitters something else to worry about, and shackled righthanders to the tune of .124/.201/.214 numbers.

But Davis' most impressive attribute might be his consistency. He maintained his quality stuff from start to start. He didn't allow more than three earned runs in any of his 13 starts and permitted one run or less in nine of his last 10 outings, including a seven-inning no-hitter against Jupiter.

"You could see Wade was on a mission," Szekely said. "He was lights out from the word go."

Davis also has a big arm(though he's not a lefty as his fastball tops out a few ticks lower), but everyone raves about his polish and mound presence. Naturally intimidating at 6'6" and 220 pounds, Davis pitches pretty aggressively. He was pretty dominant in the FSL, and since he also placed on the SL top 20, we'll talk about his Montgomery numbers then. The last Ray checked in at #20, although for some reason BA has him in the Marlins organization:

The surprise favorite of managers around the league was a 23-year-old first baseman. Skippers liked Hughes' batting eye and advanced approach, which resulted in the FSL batting title (.329). He drew comparisons to Keith Hernandez and James Loney.

Hughes worked counts until he got a pitch he could drive, usually something on the outside of the plate that he hammered to left field. If a pitcher tried to bust him inside, he would foul off the pitch until he got one he liked. He's a below-average runner, but he's fluid and shows soft hands at first base.

The big question about Hughes is whether he'll have enough pop for a first baseman. His all-fields approach isn't conducive to homers, though he has some natural strength and has shown gap power.

Obviously 23 years old is a bit old for the FSL, but an OPS over .900 is nothing to sneeze at. As BA correctly notes, the key to Hughes will be to develop some more power if he is to become a major-league 1st baseman. He had a dismal 2006 campaign, so like Ryan Royster, he'll have to prove that this year was no fluke. One last note on Hughes, he suffered a scary injury in Montgomery late in the year when he was struck in the face with a ball. I believe that he eventually needed to get false teeth put it.

Top 30 Prospects: #30 Wade Townsend

2007-10-02T12:47:00.001-04:00

And so it begins.

#30 - Wade Townsend, RHP, 24 years old, spent 2007 at low-A Columbus

The window is closing fast on Wade Townsend, the former #8 overall draft choice in 2005. He'll be 25 on Opening Day next season, and he'll still be miles away from where everyone thought he'd be when the Rays drafted him over, among others, Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutchen.

Obviously injuries have been the biggest thing holding Townsend. After pitching 39 innings at Hudson Valley and just a few more in the Arizona Fall League in 2005, he was sent home where he'd eventually need Tommy John surgery, costing him all of the 2006 season.

He started the 2007 campaign strongly in Columbus, but injuries and inconsistency plagued him all year until he was finally shut down with arm soreness after a start on August 8th. His final line for the season is rather unflattering for a 1st-rounder: 6-10, 5.08 ERA, 53 walks in 102 innings. Consistency was a huge issue for Townsend, particularly from start to start. Over his final 10 games, he allowed the following number of earned runs: 8, 0, 0, 7, 6, 2, 1, 6, 0, 6. There's precious little middle ground there.

The one promising thing is that his strikeout numbers were decent(92 in 102.2 innings), and by most accounts, his stuff looked good when he was on. I had pegged Townsend as the Rays' 2007 breakout prospect, and I still have some hope for him. The best bet right now is just to convert him to reliever and start him at Vero Beach. He threw 290 innings at Rice, so I don't think getting him experience really has to be a priority. I would move him to the bullpen and basically scrap his changeup and see if he can work on the command of his low-90s fastball and plus knuckle-curve, because if he can, then he can dominate as a reliever in the future.

He's #1! He's #1!

2007-10-01T13:08:00.000-04:00

Sure, it was a relatively weak year for the SAL. But that's not going to stop me from getting excited over Desmond Jennings being named the #1 prospect there.

Here's the scouting report on DJ:

A three-sport star in high school who played junior college football as a wide receiver, Jennings was the best all-around player in the SAL. He has the discerning eye, ability to make contact and outstanding speed teams want in a leadoff man, and he also has the ability to hit for some power. He's also a plus defender with an average arm in center field.
The lone negative came when he need arthroscopic surgery to repair the lateral meniscus in his knee, which limited him to one game after Aug. 2.

“He’s a quiet young man and a great athlete who used the season to make major improvements in all areas of his game,” Columbus manager Jim Morrison said. “He improved in stealing bases, taking the ball the other way, driving the ball in the gaps. With his defense in center, I rated him a 65-70 on the 80 scale.”

“He was the best player in the league for me,” Teufel said. “He has all the tools. He has a quick bat, can run, can throw. He’s gets good jumps and covers a lot of ground. He’s a tools player who brings a lot of energy to a team. He reminds me of Lastings Milledge a little bit.”

Two others from Columbus' championship team made the top 10, starting with Jeremy Hellickson at #8:

Like Sosa, Hellickson can create some heat of his own by touching 95 with his fastball. But Hellickson's rapid development is based on his ability to work counts and attack hitters' weaknesses.

“I hate to make the comparison, but he reminds me a lot of Greg Maddux,” Morrison said. “He works down in the strike zone and really commands his fastball. He has great arm action that produces electric stuff. His pitches really jump on hitters.”

Hellickson missed the first three weeks of the season after coming down with some arm soreness in spring training, but once he got to Columbus he displayed a consistent low-90s fastball and a quality curveball. He's still learning to trust his changeup, but he uses the same release point for all three of his pitches, creating deception. He allowed just one run in two playoff starts as the Catfish won the SAL title.

And Ryan Royster right behind at #9:

In his fourth year as a pro, Royster finally got a shot at a full-season league and nearly won the SAL triple crown. He topped the league in homers (30), and finished one off the lead in RBIs (98) and third in hitting (.329). He also paced the circuit in slugging percentage (.601) and extra-base hits (65).

“I thought he was the best player in the league that I saw,” Delmarva manager Gary Kendall said. “He has a great approach at the plate and he’s a good all-around player. I don’t see how he didn’t win the league MVP award.”

Royster's strength is his hands, which allow him to control the bat head and put the barrel on the ball with great consistency. According to Morrison, the righthanded-hitting Royster drives the ball to right field better than most lefthanded pull hitters. His speed and left-field defense are nothing special.

Jennings might actually have the highest ceiling of any of our position players, but he's obviously less likely than some others to reach it. But even though he's a "tools guy", I really like his advanced approach at the plate(45 walks to 53 strikeouts). His stolen base ratio is pretty good(75%), but I think that'll improve as he develops as a baserunner. He'll likely start next year at Vero Beach, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him end it in Montgomery.

Hellickson's another I like. He absolutely has a major-league arm, and it seems from the scouting report that he really knows how to pitch. He showed good command(34 walks in 111 innings), and the only thing that really slowed him down was the arm soreness. He was a generous 6 feet tall when drafted, but has now grown to a legitimate 6'1" and his height shouldn't really hold him back.

Royster is a guy I'm not as high on, but his numbers are simply staggering, taking home the organizational triple crown. Still, he's going to have to prove himself at every level, and it's going to depend on his ability to put the ball in play, since his 121:36 SO:BB ratio isn't impressing anyone. I have my doubts he can maintain his production(his BABIP this year was .391), but it's possible that he's just a late bloomer. He has the raw power, but I'm not quite sold on him as a legitimate future big leaguer just yet.

I was surprised Heath Rollins didn't make the back-end of the list. His stuff is ordinary, but his numbers were out of this world: 17 wins, 2.54 ERA, 149 strikeouts to 38 walks in 159 innings.

Next up is the Florida State League on Thursday, but I'm not expecting a whole lot(if any) Rays to make the cut there.

Top 30 Prospects: Honorable Mentions

2007-09-28T15:11:00.000-04:00

Today starts my top 30 prospects feature, where I'll run through my top 30, updating this approximately "whenever." With that said, we're not going to hop right into it yet, rather, today I'll take a quick a look at the guys who didn't quite make the cut.

James Houser, LHP: It's hard to get a read on Houser. He was putting up pretty good numbers at Montgomery, but then his season was cut short by suspension for violating baseball's performance-enhancing drugs policy. Not only did that kill his season and throw up big question marks next to his numbers, it probably didn't do him any favors with the Rays' brass.

With that said, Houser's still got a career minor-league WHIP of 1.21, which includes an impressive showing(1.22 WHIP, 137 strikeouts) in the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2006. He was on his way to another impressive season as a 22-year old in the Southern League, but obviously you don't know how legit those(or any of his) numbers are.

Shawn O'Malley, SS: O'Malley brings some decent tools to the table, unfortunately, a bat doesn't appear to be one of them. He has a slick glove and some good wheels, but an OPS of .626 just isn't going to get it done. The 2006 5th-rounder will get his chances, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2008 at full-season Columbus.

Kyle Ayers, Chris Luck, RHPs, and Matt Moore, LHP: I talked about these three briefly in the Nick Barnese post, and the basic gist of it is that all three had impressive pro ball debuts, and there's certainly potential to be seen here.

Mike McCormick checks in at #19

2007-09-26T11:52:00.000-04:00

BaseballAmerica rolled out their top 20 New York-Penn League prospects today, and again, there was but one Tampa Bay farmhand to make the cut: Catcher Mike McCormick, who barely made the list at #19. Here's what BA had to say about him:

McCormick struggled as a third baseman for two years in the Rookie-level Appalachian League before the Devil Rays decided to convert him to catcher. He took to the new position, showing a strong arm and quick release that yields pop times between 1.8 and 2.05 seconds. He threw out 31 percent of basestealers at a level where pitchers typically aren't great at holding runners. He also shifts and blocks balls in the dirt well.

"Obviously he has work to be done receiving. It's new for him," Quatraro said. "But his footwork's good. He's just polishing up the receiving and game-calling. You're not going to get somebody that works harder. We'll get the most out of him."

Offensively, McCormick has bat speed and good raw power. He made strides becoming a more patient hitter this summer, but he cocks the bat head toward the pitcher and can be beaten up and in under his hands. But if a pitcher makes a mistake, he can hit it a long way.

I'm not too sure what to make of him. He strikes out a lot, but takes his share of walks, and put up pretty good numbers in a pitcher's park. He seems to be a pretty good thrower, and that 31% throw-out ratio would be higher if he weren't catching knuckleballer Diego Echevarria every 5 days.

He seemingly has the tools to be successful, but it sounds like he'll have to fix that hole in his swing. Also, at 20 years old, he was a bit old for the league, but that comes with making the switch to catcher. He'll likely start next year in full-season Columbus, and that should provide a pretty good barometer.

As for other Hudson Valley players who were close to the list, BA mentioned Shawn O'Malley as a possibility, but he was left off due to a lack of offense. One guy I was surprised to not see mentioned anywhere was Alex Cobb, a 19-year old who finished with a 3.54 ERA. Again, Dutchess Stadium, where the Renegades play, is a pitcher's park, and his strikeout numbers weren't anything special, but I thought Cobb had a nice season.

Next up is the Sally League, where the Rays should actually be decently represented. Desmon Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson are close to locks, while Heath Rollins and Ryan Royster will likely garner consideration.

Nick Barnese #6 in Appy League

2007-09-25T14:34:00.000-04:00

BaseballAmerica is in the process of putting our their League Top 20s, a look at the top 20 prospects from each and every minor league and on Monday they took a look at the top 20 Appalachian League Prospects.

Nick Barnese, the Rays' 3rd round draft pick in 2007, was the only Princeton player to make the list. Here's the scouting report they gave:

Barnese pitched a 3-0 shutout in the first outing of his high school junior season in 2006, then was suspended for the rest of the season for violating an unspecified rule. He returned to the mound this spring and pitched himself into the third round of the draft, and continued to show a very focused attitude during his pro debut.

Barnese's fastball sits at 91-93 mph with good life. His breaking ball is a hard slurve with good depth and late break, and it has a chance to become a 12-to-6 curveball. He's still working on his changeup, but his command is advanced for a high schooler.

"He has a sense of arrogance and cockiness, but he's focused and confident," Princeton manager Jamie Nelson said. "He goes out thinking, 'I want to be king of the hill.' "

His stats this year certainly backed this up, as he posted a 3.22 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and most importantly, to me at least, 37 strikeouts to just 4 walks in 36.1 innings. Those numbers are simply outstanding for a high school draftee.

It's important to understand, though, that Barnese was an all-fastball guy coming out of high school with extremely raw breaking stuff. So it's likely that he was relying a ton on his fastball at Princeton. The good news is that even if he was throwing a high percentage of fastballs, he showed exceptional control of it early on, which is a great sign. He'll obviously need to develop his breaking stuff to have success as he continues to move along, but I'm impressed with the early returns on him. I also like that he's athletic, and I think that as he continues to grow, he can add a few miles per hour to his fastball.

While Barnese was the only P-Ray to make the BA top 20, several others had quality pro ball debuts:
-Matthew Moore, the Rays' 8th-rounder in 2007, struck out 29 and allowed only 12 hits in 20 innings
-Kyle Ayers, the 14-round pick, posted a 3.86 ERA and should improve as his body matures
-Chris Luck, drafted in the 20th round, struck out 43 in 37 innings. He's 6'3" and athletic, and another guy who I think has a pretty bright future.

Obviously it's tough to draw conclusions based on rookie ball stats. But the scouting reports have been mostly good on these guys, and hey, even if the stats mean next to nothing, I'd rather they do well then struggle.

An Introduction

2007-09-25T12:31:00.000-04:00

I don't have a whole lot to say before I get started with real content, just wanted to introduce myself real quick.

I'm a sophomore at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, NJ, and to my knowledge, the only Rays fan here. I'm a Journalism & Media Studies major, and a Political Science minor. I enjoy writing, although I really haven't done too much of that lately. I was previously the writer for the MLB and MiLB Rays blogs on MVN, but for whatever reason, my heart just wasn't in it.

So I stumbled over to blogspot, where I decided to just drop the whole MLB aspect and really focus on prospects and the minor leagues. There are already a bunch of quality MLB ones, like DRaysBay and Rays Index.

So anyway, two basic aims of this blog:
-Be the #1 source for all information regarding Tampa Bay prospects and minor league affiliates
-Occasionally, post about the Rays big-league team as well as other minor league/prospect news

Still with me? Good, because we're about to get started