I've moved!

As of today, I have moved to cover prospects and the minor leagues at DRaysBay, which can be found here. Probably everyone who reads this blog visits DRaysBay anyway, so I hope to see you there!

The New Guy: Chase Fontaine

As you are probably aware of the trade that sent reliever Jeff Ridgway to Atlanta for infielders Willy Aybar and Chase Fontaine. You can view discussion of the deal at DRaysBay here, where most of the discussion is correctly about Ridgway and Aybar. But here, we're going to take a look at the throw-in from Atlanta, Chase Fontaine.

A Braves 2nd rounder(72nd overall) in 2006 out of Daytona Beach CC, Fontaine split 2007 between Rome(SAL League) and Myrtle Beach(Carolina League). Older than most of the SAL competition, he hit a respectable .288/.402/.399 in 318 at-bats with Rome, but hit a wall in Myrtle Beach. The Pelicans' home stadium is notoriously rough on hitters, but .205/.284/.256 in 78 at-bats is bad in any stadium.

Fontaine has a solid all-around game but lacks any plus tools. Clearly he has relied on plate discipline as a pro, not hitting for much power in his 1.5 seasons. He played shortstop at Daytona Beach, but has played all over the place as a pro: SS, 2B, 3B, and OF. His versatility and compact swing make him a candidate to move up steadily through the minors, but I don't ever see him becoming a big-league regular. With work(namely, cutting down on a high strikeout number for something with his swing), he could become a decent backup thanks to his ability to play almost anywhere. He doesn't have the range to be an everyday SS or the power to be an everyday 3B, so 2B is probably his long-term main position.

Fontaine could be a fringe top-30 prospect in some organizations, but he's probably in the 38-40 range with the Rays. He'll start 2007 at Vero Beach, a welcome change of scenery from Myrtle Beach.

From John Sickels:

Drafted in the second round out of Daytona Beach CC in 2006, Chase Fontaine (sounds like a name from a 1950s musical) is a line drive hitter with very good strike zone judgment. He doesn't have much power at this point, although some scouts believe he will develop more as he progresses. He hit well in the Sally League (OPS +9 percent), but was much less effective after a late promotion to the Carolina League. Note the deterioration in his BB/K/AB ratio at the higher level. I was pretty optimistic about Fontaine last year and gave him a B-, but that looks too high right now. He needs to show more pop, but still has a chance to be an Adam Kennedy type. Grade C+.

Top 30 Prospects: #19 Heath Rollins

#19 Heath Rollins, RHP, 22 years old, spent 2007 at low-A Columbus
#20 Mike McCormick, C
#21-30

In his first taste of pro ball, Rollins had arguably the best season of any pitcher in the Rays system: 17-4, 2.54 ERA, 149/38 SO/BB ratio in 159 innings, 1.07 WHIP as the ace of the Catfish team that went on to win the SAL title.

So why is he only 18th? He was 22 years old most of the season, so his dominating the younger competition isn't as impressive as, say, 20-year-old Jeremy Hellickson putting up similar numbers. But just because he was old for his league doesn't make Rollins a non-prospect.

There's a lot to like with Rollins. Have played at Winthrop with Twins' pitcher Kevin Slowey, the two have been compared due to their similar styles. But while Rollins has good control, he lacks the plus-plus command of his former teammate.

Rollins is actually one of the best athletes in the Rays' organization, and he would've been drafted as an outfielder if not for his pitching prowess. In two years as a part-time outfielder at Winthrop, he hit .333 and stole 54 bases. His limited power ceiling led Tampa Bay to keep him on the mound, where I think his athleticism is a huge plus. Call me a sucker for them, but athletic pitchers can often pitch above their fringe-average tools, such as Kyle Kendrick with Philadelphia this year.

Still, he'll be 23 and pretty much a finished product next season, so his ceiling is lower than a lot of other guys' on this list. He tops out around 90-91 with his fastball and doesn't have a plus offspeed offering. But his good command and pitchability should have him moving quickly. He'll start 2008 at Vero Beach but should finish in Montgomery and perhaps be poised to plug a hole on the big-league staff sometime during 2009.

The coming week

Top 30 updates will be posted sporadically, mostly due to a spotty internet connection and a full work schedule. In the meantime, go Cowboys!

Chat Triple Threat: Callis, Goldstein, Ballew

Reminder: You can see my BA Top 10 breakdown here

A banner day for bored prospect bloggers everywhere, as prospect gurus Jim Callis of BaseballAmerica and Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspectus held chats, as well as Bill Ballew of BA holding the Rays-centric chat. Here are the Rays-related questions from Callis and Goldstein, as well as some select ones from Ballew. My comments are in parenthesis.

Kevin (FC): What's Ryan Royster's ceiling, a Jonny Gomes-type?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:38 PM ET ) That seems fair to me.
(Obviously Royster doesn't have the eye, but makes more consistent contact with similar power.)

Kevin (FC): Kazmir or Bedard in 2008?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:41 PM ET ) Kazmir.

Kevin (FC): An early college baseball question: Which teams are pre-season favorites?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:26 PM ET ) I know Aaron Fitt and John Manuel are still working on our preseason Top 25. The last I heard, UCLA was the favorite to be No. 1. I like Missouri as a sleeper.
(Not Rays related, but I'm going to go on record and pick Rutgers for the 19th straight year.)

Brian (RI): Niemann or Price gets the call fisrt?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:44 PM ET ) Niemann, only because I think the Rays will try to bring Price along a little slowly at first.
(Duh.)

ken (mass): thanks! another one...albeit different players, Jennings or Lowrie?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:47 PM ET ) Desmond Jennings. But Jed Lowrie is three levels ahead of him, so you could take the safer route and go with him.
(That's a bit like asking 'Iodized salt or hooded sweatshirts?')

Josh (Los Angeles, CA): Kershaw, McGee, or Price?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:52 PM ET ) Kershaw. Don't forget to include Franklin Morales with that group.
(Agreed. I'd say is goes Kershaw, McGee/Price are even, Morales.)

Steve (El Paso): Wade Davis or Johnny Cueto?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:04 PM ET ) Davis. But Cueto is underrated.
(I actually asked this EXACT same question.)

jaymoff (Salem, OR): How many Rays prospects would be #1's in other organizations?

Kevin Goldstein: As many as six.

Tim (Portland): What's your take on Pedro Alvarez?

Kevin Goldstein: Obviously, there's a lot to like there. Very good bat, lot's of power, not a great defensive player, but more than good enough to stay at 3B. I don't think I'd put him in Ryan Braun's class offensively, but again, he can stay at the position, so that makes up a lot for it.

Kevin (FCq): Do you think Jeff Niemann going to get a fair shot at the rotation with Wade Davis, David Price, and Jake McGee banging on the door?

Kevin Goldstein: I think everyone, including some of the second-tier pitchers in that system like Talbot and Mason will get a 'fair shot' at the roation -- I just think there are only so many jobs there.
(The key to getting your question posted is to accidentally put a "q" in the location and forgetting to use the word "is.")

jlarsen (DRays Bay): In the case Longoria starts the year in Durham, do you think Joel Guzman will be an adequate stopgap 3B for the Rays or would we be better served by signing a Free Agent 3B?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think Joel Guzman is even an adequate stopgap at 3B for Durham at this point.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Baseball America left Fernando Perez off their top 10 prospect list for the Rays. How can this be?

Kevin Goldstein: Ask them.
(I really like how active the Rays blogging community is in these chats)

Bron (Ontario): Gorkys Hernandez or Desmond Jennings?

Kevin Goldstein: Jennings by a wide margin. Both are top 100 guys though.

Bill Ballew: Perez is an early 20s guy in the Rays organization, and I don't see him being higher than a mid-teens player in most other organizations. He does a lot of things well, but his power is almost nonexistent and his age is on the verge of working against him.
(What? He hit 8 homeruns last year. His power is below-average, not "non-existant.")

BaseballAmerica Top 10 Breakdown

BaseballAmerica put their top 10 Rays prospects up online today, along with scouting reports if you're a subscriber. Without further ado...

The List
1. Evan Longoria
2. David Price
3. Jake McGee
4. Wade Davis
5. Reid Brignac
6. Desmond Jennings
7. Jeff Niemann
8. Jeremy Hellickson
9. Ryan Royster
10. Chris Mason

I was a little surprised Price ranked ahead of both Davis and McGee, but it's tough to go wrong when ranking those three. Besides that, the top 8 has nothing to argue about, but Royster and Mason are mild surprises at 9 and 10.

Royster's stats at Columbus were nothing short of phenomenal, but he was old for the league and really, really underwhelmed in his first 3 seasons, repeating Princeton in 2005 and hitting .247 in Hudson Valley in 2006. His defense is questionable in the outfield, and I'm not sure how good his bat actually is.

As for Mason, I actually like him a lot, but I'll spoil things a bit by saying I had 3 guys not on this list ahead of him on my top 30. Mason, like Royster, had great numbers in 2007, but he's a short righty without a plus pitch. He lives on deception, savvy, and control, and that combination might not play at the major-league level.

The Scouting
Best Hitter for Average Evan Longoria
Best Power Hitter Evan Longoria
Best Strike-Zone Discipline John Jaso
Fastest Baserunner Fernando Perez
Best Athlete Desmond Jennings
Best Fastball Jake McGee
Best Curveball Wade Davis
Best Slider David Price
Best Changeup Mitch Talbot
Best Control Chris Mason
Best Defensive Catcher Christian Lopez
Best Defensive Infielder Reid Brignac
Best Infield Arm Jairo de la Rosa
Best Defensive Outfielder Fernando Perez
Best Outfield Arm Justin Ruggiano

Reid Brignac is an absolute shock as best defensive infielder. Either he's made great strides or our infield defense is poor at best in the minors. I'm not sure how I missed Jaso for best strike-zone discipline, that was probably a pretty easy choice. Fernando Perez and Desmond Jennings in a foot race would be interesting, and if Perez is faster, it probably isn't by much. I chose Jennings for best baserunner because his SB-CS was 45-15, whereas Perez's was 32-18, below-average for a guy with his wheels. Mason and Rollins were the two I debated between for best control, Mason likely won because he posted a similar walk rate(2.15 for Rollins, 2.45 for Mason) at a higher level. We don't have anyone with a cannon in the outfield, but Ruggiano's arm is at least above-average.

The Scouting
Obviously I can't post complete scouting reports here, but I did pick out some interesting, copyright-friendly tidbits about each player(BA quotes in italics, my own thoughts in regular type):

Evan Longoria: "Defensively, Longoria is an above-average third baseman with soft hands and solid body control. His footwork is a plus, both with his lateral movement and with charging the ball on slow rollers. His arm strength is another plus, and his throws have good carry and accuracy."

We all know what Longoria can do with the bat, so it's really a good sign that his defense is also pretty highly regarded. Honestly, I'm not sure there's much more work to be done in the minors. Also, amusingly, Bill Ballew called Iwmaura "Akinori Otsuka" in his writeup. Can we get someone else to do these things next year?

David Price: "His fastball has great late life and armside run while sitting in the low 90s and touching 95 mph. He throws a plus-plus slider that reaches 87 mph and has a late, sharp bite. His changeup is also a plus pitch with excellent deception and fade."

Obviously Price hasn't played pro ball, and that tends to show a player's shortcomings. The most ridiculous thing here is that someone who has, in BA's words, "no knocks on him," is only ranked #2.

Jake McGee: "His heater sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 with impressive movement. His slider has good tilt and he has improved the depth and fade on his changeup."

It should be noted that when McGee touched 98, he did it on the notoriously slow Montgomery Biscuits' radar gun, so we're really talking 99-100. At this point, McGee just needs to continue to improve his control and offspeed offerings.

Wade Davis: "He relies heavily on a four-seam fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96. He also throws a hard 11-to-5 curveball in the upper 70s with occasional two-plane break."

Davis would probably be the #1 prospect in 8-10 other organizations. The best part about him may not even be his wicked stuff, but his poise on the mound and the intensity he brings.

Reid Brignac: "He uses the entire field and has plus power that really stands out for a shortstop. His speed and defense are solid."

I don't think Brignac took a step back in '07 as much as he just held his ground. I'd start to worry if his numbers don't show signs of rebounding in 2008, but I think his bat will pick back up again. The acquisition of Jason Bartlett ensures he won't be rushed.

Desmond Jennings: "At the plate, Jennings has a discerning eye with the ability to make contact and drive the ball in the gaps. He has all the tools to become a top-flight leadoff hitter."

Jennings is probably the most "exciting" player on the list. He's a top-flight athlete with plus tools across the board, the lone exception his average arm. Scouts love his toolbox, statheads love his plate approach and eye. Just a lot to love here.

Jeff Niemann: "He still has to prove that he's durable after having arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2003 and a minor shoulder operation in 2006. He pitched through some shoulder pain last August and had a small bone spur removed after the season."

Durability is still Niemann's biggest foe, though even when healthy he's probably no more than a #2-3 starter. He'll be 25 by Opening Day 2008, so it's time for Niemann to step up.

Jeremy Hellickson: "Hellickson commands a fastball that sits at 92-93 mph and touches 95. He has good feel for a curveball that jumps on hitters."

The Rays have been understandably cautious with Hellickson(I love that name, by the way), but he'll finally play a full season in 2008(he was held back in extended spring training last season with a sore arm) at Vero Beach and potentially finishing at Montgomery. All the concerns about short righties are there, but Hellickson has the stuff and command to overcome them.

Ryan Royster: "Royster is a classic country boy with tremendous bat speed and plus-plus raw power to all fields."

This is where we have to disagree. I'm not sure he has plus-plus power, as he only hit 25 homeruns in his first 3 seasons. The report mentions he cut down on his swing, which may have led to his breakout. I'd like to see him do it again.

Chris Mason: "Mason works fast with an unorthodox delivery and fills the strike zone, with managers rating his control the best in the SL."

That's Mason's resume: Delivery, control, fringy stuff. His changeup and slider rate well, but his fastball barely cracks 90, and for a righty that can be a big problem in the majors.

Top 30 Prospects: #20 Mike McCormick

#20 Mike McCormick, C, 21 years old, spent 2007 at short-season Hudson Valley
#21-30

McCormick was hitting decently, but his struggles in the field forced him to repeat at rookie-level Princeton in 2006. A high-school shortstop, the Rays moved him to 3B where he booted balls and made errant throw after errant throw. The front office decided to try his strong arm behind the plate, and the results at Hudson Valley were better than expected.

Unlike the Sergio Pedroza experiment, McCormick continued to hit after being moved, and his defense was surprisingly solid. He threw out approximately 25% of baserunners, a number that figures to improve as he becomes more comfortable. He hit for a .276/.352/.469 line in a pitcher's park in what's generally regarded as a pitcher's league.

McCormick's bat has some good pop with power potential, but his usually patient plate approach can erode at times and lead to slumps. In August, his walk rate plummeted from 15% to under 5%, a trend which carried into September, where he hit only .167. His stat line was buoyed by a tremendous month of July, so finding a way to keep his production up throughout the season will be the next step in his development.

He'll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, taking over for Nevin Ashley as Ashley moves up to Vero Beach. He still has to work on his receiving and game-calling skills, but it'll only be his second season behind the plate. He shouldn't have too much of a problem adjusting at the plate, provided he maintains solid walk and strikeout numbers.